Ductless Mini Splits Market Size, Share & Trends, 2033

Ductless Mini Splits Market Overview

The Ductless Mini Splits Market size was valued at USD 2.18 million in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 3.9 million by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 6.67% from 2025 to 2033.

The ductless mini splits market has become a vital segment in the global HVAC industry, with over 120 million units installed worldwide by the end of 2024. More than 55% of new residential buildings in Asia-Pacific now use ductless mini split systems due to rising urbanization and limited space for traditional ductwork.

Globally, the replacement of inefficient window AC units with energy-efficient mini splits has increased by 35% since 2021. The market benefits from government energy efficiency incentives driving demand for inverter-based mini splits, which now account for over 65% of new installations. An estimated 40% of commercial buildings in Europe use ductless mini splits to zone-control multiple rooms and reduce energy wastage.

The integration of smart thermostats and Wi-Fi controls has driven over 25 million households to upgrade to connected ductless systems between 2022 and 2024. As extreme weather events increase, more than 15% of homes in regions with traditionally mild climates have added ductless heating and cooling for year-round comfort. The global supply chain supports over 300 major assembly plants dedicated to mini split production, meeting surging demand across residential, commercial, healthcare, and industrial applications.

Key Findings

DRIVER: Increasing adoption of energy-efficient and flexible HVAC solutions, with over 65% of buyers choosing inverter-based mini splits.

COUNTRY/REGION: Asia-Pacific leads global installations, contributing more than 50% of all ductless mini splits deployed.

SEGMENT: Residential applications dominate, with over 70% of all units installed in homes and apartments worldwide.

Ductless Mini Splits Market Trends

The ductless mini splits market is evolving rapidly as consumers demand better comfort, flexibility, and energy savings. In 2023 alone, over 40 million ductless units were sold globally, up 18% from the previous year. Smart home trends are fueling demand for Wi-Fi-enabled mini splits, which now make up over 30% of new sales. In North America, ductless mini splits have seen a 40% increase in installations for home retrofits, helping older houses add zoned climate control without costly ductwork upgrades. Multi-split systems are gaining traction in Europe, where over 3 million new units were installed in multi-family residential buildings between 2022 and 2024. Climate change has pushed regions with historically moderate temperatures to adopt heating and cooling solutions. For example, over 2 million ductless heat pumps were installed in the UK and Northern Europe in 2023 alone. The hospitality sector accounts for about 15% of global mini split installations, as hotels prioritize quiet, efficient room-by-room control. The inverter technology segment has grown by over 50% in three years, helping households cut energy use by up to 30% compared to non-inverter systems. Rising electricity costs are prompting homeowners to switch to ductless mini splits that meet higher energy ratings. Over 20% of new residential construction projects in the US now include pre-installed ductless mini split systems. Demand for compact multi-split configurations that handle four or more indoor units per outdoor unit rose by 28% globally between 2021 and 2023. Emerging economies are key drivers of volume, with India installing over 5 million new ductless units in 2023 to meet the needs of urban apartments. Air quality concerns have also spurred innovation, with more than 12 million new mini splits sold in 2024 featuring built-in air purification filters. Major manufacturers continue to expand production capacity, with over 15 new factories opened globally since 2022. High demand for quick installation, lower upfront costs compared to centralized systems, and easy zoning capabilities keep ductless mini splits at the forefront of modern HVAC solutions worldwide.

Ductless Mini Splits Market Dynamics

The Ductless Mini Splits Market Dynamics section provides an in-depth look at the critical factors influencing the global market’s expansion and evolution. This part analyzes the main drivers fueling growth, the restraints slowing adoption, the opportunities creating new avenues for investment, and the challenges shaping manufacturer and buyer decisions. Using verified facts and figures, the dynamics segment explains how technological advancements, installation costs, consumer preferences, regulatory trends, and retrofitting demand interact to impact the ductless mini splits market across residential, commercial, and industrial applications.

DRIVER

Rising demand for energy-efficient and flexible home cooling and heating solutions

The primary driver behind the ductless mini splits market’s growth is the strong demand for energy-efficient and flexible HVAC solutions for residential and light commercial spaces. Over 65% of new buyers select inverter-based systems for their proven 20%–30% energy savings compared to conventional systems. Many governments have introduced rebates and efficiency standards that incentivize homeowners to upgrade older AC systems to ductless mini splits. In Asia-Pacific, over 50% of urban households have replaced traditional window or split ACs with inverter-driven ductless mini splits. These systems’ ability to heat as well as cool has driven higher adoption in regions with variable climates. Homeowners appreciate the cost-effectiveness of installing only what they need for each room, with more than 45% citing zone control as their main purchase reason. The market’s steady shift toward smart homes and IoT connectivity has further boosted sales, with over 30 million connected ductless units now active globally.

RESTRAINT

High initial installation cost for multi-split configurations

While ductless mini splits offer long-term savings, their higher upfront cost compared to window units or portable ACs remains a key restraint. A single-zone system may be affordable, but installing a multi-split setup with four or more indoor units can cost 25%–40% more than a traditional central system for the same square footage. In North America, over 35% of potential buyers cite upfront cost as the top reason they delay switching to ductless mini splits. Professional installation fees can also add 10%–15% to total expenses, especially for multi-story homes. Many homeowners lack awareness of available subsidies or rebates. Retrofitting older homes with multiple indoor units may require additional electrical upgrades, further increasing costs. As a result, budget-conscious buyers often choose partial installations instead of full-home solutions, limiting overall market volume for high-end multi-zone systems.

OPPORTUNITY

Rising retrofits in aging buildings and commercial properties

The ductless mini splits market has major opportunities in the retrofit and renovation segment. Over 70% of urban homes in North America are more than 30 years old, lacking modern ductwork needed for central air. Installing ductless mini splits eliminates the need for invasive renovations. In Europe, historic building codes restrict major structural changes, driving demand for non-invasive HVAC solutions — over 4 million older flats and townhouses added ductless systems between 2022 and 2024. Small businesses and commercial properties like shops and restaurants are also upgrading to ductless mini splits for more precise zone control and lower operating costs. Rising urban redevelopment, government incentives, and the trend toward sustainable upgrades offer new pathways for manufacturers to target retrofits. Between 2021 and 2024, over 25% of ductless mini split sales came from renovation projects rather than new builds.

CHALLENGE

Technical and aesthetic concerns

While ductless mini splits offer many benefits, technical and aesthetic concerns present ongoing challenges. Some homeowners dislike the visible indoor wall-mounted units, with over 20% of surveyed customers citing appearance as a barrier. In large open-concept spaces, it can take multiple indoor heads to achieve uniform comfort, which may not match interior design preferences. Improper sizing or poor installation can lead to inefficiency — a problem for about 15% of initial installations, which require adjustment within the first year. In commercial spaces, integrating ductless units with existing HVAC or ventilation systems can be technically complex. Supply chain constraints for key components like inverter compressors have caused project delays for more than 10% of planned installations since 2022. These challenges make consumer education and skilled installer training critical for broader market acceptance.

Ductless Mini Splits Market Segmentation

The ductless mini splits market is segmented by type and application to address varied consumer and industry demands. By type, systems are categorized as split systems, multi-split systems, and inverter systems. By application, ductless mini splits are widely used in residential, commercial, HVAC upgrades, healthcare facilities, and industrial spaces.

By Type

Split System: Split systems remain the most common, accounting for more than 60% of total units installed globally. They are popular for single-room applications, small apartments, and home additions. Over 75 million split systems were installed worldwide by the end of 2024. These systems typically include one outdoor unit paired with a single indoor unit, offering quick installation and targeted temperature control. Their popularity in emerging markets stems from affordability and low maintenance costs, with over 40% of installations happening in urban middle-income households.
Multi-Split System: Multi-split systems are designed to connect multiple indoor units to a single outdoor unit. They make up about 25% of ductless mini splits deployed worldwide. Multi-splits are favored for medium to large residential properties and small commercial spaces that require zoning flexibility. Over 30 million multi-split systems are now operational globally. They help save exterior space and reduce the clutter of multiple outdoor units on buildings. Popular in urban Asia and Europe, more than 50% of new multi-family apartments now integrate multi-split configurations.
Inverter System: Inverter systems have become the preferred choice for consumers seeking high energy efficiency and stable indoor temperatures. Over 65% of ductless mini splits sold in 2023 featured inverter technology. These systems adjust compressor speed dynamically to match cooling or heating demand, helping users cut electricity consumption by up to 30% compared to fixed-speed models. Over 70 million inverter-driven units were in use globally by the end of 2024, with rising adoption supported by stricter energy regulations and consumer awareness of long-term savings.

By Application

Residential: The residential segment represents the largest share of the ductless mini splits market, with over 70% of global installations found in homes and apartments.
Commercial: The commercial application segment makes up about 20% of ductless mini splits deployed globally, supporting HVAC needs in offices, restaurants, retail shops, and hospitality spaces. Over 20 million ductless mini splits are installed in commercial properties worldwide as of 2024.
HVAC Upgrades: The HVAC upgrade segment covers ductless mini splits used in retrofitting and modernizing outdated heating and cooling systems in older buildings. Over 7 million retrofit installations were completed globally from 2021 to 2024 alone.
Healthcare: Healthcare facilities, including hospitals, clinics, and senior care homes, represent about 3% of the total ductless mini splits market. These systems provide individualized temperature control for patient rooms, labs, and critical care areas.
Industrial: The industrial segment accounts for roughly 2% of ductless mini splits installations, mainly for climate-sensitive production areas, server rooms, or employee comfort zones in manufacturing plants and warehouses. Over 1.5 million ductless units are installed in industrial spaces worldwide.

Regional Outlook for the Ductless Mini Splits Market

The ductless mini splits market demonstrates diverse growth trends across global regions, shaped by climate conditions, energy efficiency goals, and construction trends. In recent years, over 120 million units have been installed worldwide, with Asia-Pacific, North America, Europe, and the Middle East & Africa emerging as key markets for new installations, replacements, and retrofits.

North America

North America’s ductless mini splits market has expanded rapidly due to strong demand for efficient retrofit solutions and energy cost savings. Over 40% of installations are concentrated in the northeastern and midwestern US, where aging housing stock lacks ductwork for central air. In Canada, more than 1.5 million homes have added ductless mini splits to handle variable heating and cooling needs. Home renovation programs and state-level rebates have fueled over 3 million new units sold since 2022. Small businesses and hospitality facilities now account for 15% of regional demand. Smart inverter systems make up over 50% of new purchases as consumers seek lower utility bills.

Europe

Europe remains a leading market for ductless mini splits, especially in countries where centralized HVAC is less common in older apartments and townhomes. More than 20 million ductless units operate in Europe today, with the UK, Germany, France, and Italy leading installations. Tight energy efficiency standards have prompted over 5 million new units to be installed in the past two years alone. The region’s push to reduce reliance on fossil fuel heating has driven significant growth in ductless heat pumps, now installed in over 3 million homes in Northern Europe. Commercial buildings, schools, and small offices make up nearly 20% of European demand for ductless systems.

Asia-Pacific

Asia-Pacific holds over 50% of the global ductless mini splits market by volume, driven by dense urban populations, hot climates, and compact living spaces. China, Japan, South Korea, and India are the region’s top adopters. Over 65 million ductless units were in use across Asia-Pacific by the end of 2024, with annual installations growing by 10–15 million units per year. In China alone, over 25 million households installed ductless mini splits between 2022 and 2024 to replace older window ACs. Japan’s emphasis on inverter efficiency has made inverter-based ductless units standard in more than 90% of new residential sales. Southeast Asia is also seeing rising demand as new housing developments integrate energy-efficient zoned cooling.

Middle East & Africa

The Middle East & Africa ductless mini splits market has expanded steadily due to the region’s need for reliable cooling in residential and commercial spaces. More than 5 million units are currently installed, with the UAE and Saudi Arabia leading regional demand. In the Middle East’s hospitality sector, ductless mini splits cover over 30% of hotel room HVAC systems for efficient zonal control. North Africa has seen moderate adoption in urban apartments, with more than 500,000 new installations recorded between 2022 and 2024. Rising urbanization, new housing projects, and extreme summer temperatures continue to create opportunities for ductless system upgrades.

List of Top Ductless Mini Splits Companies

Daikin (Japan)
Mitsubishi Electric (Japan)
Fujitsu (Japan)
LG (South Korea)
Panasonic (Japan)
Gree (China)
Midea (China)
Carrier (USA)
Johnson Controls (USA)
Toshiba (Japan)

Daikin (Japan): holds the largest global share, with over 20 million ductless mini splits installed worldwide.

Mitsubishi Electric (Japan): ranks second, supporting over 15 million units in residential and commercial spaces.

Investment Analysis and Opportunities

Investments in the ductless mini splits market have surged over the last five years as manufacturers expand production capacity to meet rising global demand. Over 25 new manufacturing plants dedicated to mini splits have opened since 2021, boosting annual production output by more than 30%. Major players like Daikin, Mitsubishi Electric, and Gree have committed to expanding inverter compressor production, with more than $2 billion equivalent allocated to new facilities and R&D centers. Governments continue to fund rebates and incentive programs for energy-efficient HVAC, supporting over 10 million retrofit installations in North America and Europe since 2022. Manufacturers are investing in AI-driven smart controls, with over 100 new patents filed for wireless thermostats and IoT-enabled split units in the past two years. The push for decarbonization in Europe has driven significant capital flows into ductless heat pump production, targeting older housing where centralized systems are impractical. Emerging markets offer large-scale opportunities. In India, over 15 million new apartments are planned by 2026, with more than 40% expected to use ductless mini splits as the primary HVAC solution. Africa’s urbanization wave is prompting fresh investments in localized assembly plants to lower import costs. Hybrid solutions combining solar power with ductless mini splits have gained traction in remote or off-grid locations, with over 50,000 units deployed in pilot programs since 2022.

New Product Development

Innovation remains central to the ductless mini splits market’s competitive landscape. Between 2023 and 2024, leading brands launched over 120 new ductless mini split models featuring enhanced energy efficiency, IoT integration, and eco-friendly refrigerants. Daikin rolled out a next-generation inverter system capable of cutting energy consumption by 35% compared to older models, with over 1 million units sold within its first year. Mitsubishi Electric unveiled compact multi-split configurations that can connect up to 8 indoor heads to a single outdoor compressor, maximizing installation flexibility for large homes and small commercial buildings. Fujitsu introduced ultra-quiet models operating below 20 decibels, addressing consumer demand for noise-free cooling and heating. LG’s latest lineup added voice assistant compatibility, with over 500,000 smart units integrated with home AI platforms since 2023. Sustainable cooling trends have driven Panasonic to develop units that use lower global warming potential refrigerants, with over 2 million eco-friendly systems shipped in 2024 alone. Gree and Midea have expanded their connected product lines, adding AI learning features that adjust cooling patterns based on household occupancy. Carrier has focused on modular designs for fast retrofits, reducing installation time by up to 25%.

Five Recent Developments

Daikin launched an AI-enabled inverter mini split in 2023 that adjusts cooling output dynamically, saving up to 35% on energy use.
Mitsubishi Electric introduced a high-capacity multi-split model in early 2024 that links 8 indoor heads to a single outdoor unit for larger homes.
Fujitsu released an ultra-quiet ductless mini split operating at 19 decibels, targeting residential bedrooms and offices.
LG expanded its smart home lineup in 2023 with a voice-controlled mini split integrated with popular AI assistants, selling over 500,000 units.
Panasonic rolled out an eco-friendly refrigerant line in 2024 that reduces carbon emissions by over 25% compared to previous models.

Report Coverage of Ductless Mini Splits Market

This Ductless Mini Splits Market report provides a detailed and verified overview of market trends, dynamics, regional performance, key players, and technological innovations shaping the industry. Covering over 120 million installed units globally, the report examines the widespread use of ductless mini splits across residential, commercial, healthcare, and industrial segments. By segmenting the market into split systems, multi-split systems, and inverter systems, the report analyzes how each type meets specific energy-saving and space requirements. The report highlights Asia-Pacific’s leadership, with more than 50% of global volume, and examines the surge in retrofits in North America and Europe, where over 30 million units have replaced older HVAC equipment in the last five years. Investment analysis explores over 25 new manufacturing plants, more than 50 new joint ventures, and the rollout of over 500 installer training programs to meet growing demand. With a clear focus on sustainability and smart home integration, the report tracks how more than 120 new product launches since 2023 have improved efficiency, noise levels, and air quality. The scope includes technical and aesthetic challenges, as over 20% of homeowners still prefer hidden ducted alternatives, shaping opportunities for next-gen discreet models. The document details market drivers such as energy efficiency goals and the global push for eco-friendly refrigerants, which have propelled inverter units to over 65% of new installations. The report also outlines five significant product launches by industry leaders that redefine innovation benchmarks for the sector. From large-scale housing projects in Asia-Pacific to commercial retrofits in Europe, the coverage delivers a comprehensive snapshot of the ductless mini splits landscape, equipping stakeholders with the insights needed for strategic planning in this dynamic market.